The betting market has already issued its verdict on the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks: their season win total has dropped from 14 to 10.5, reflecting real roster change rather than assumption alone. Sam Darnold and a talented receiver corps make the case that Seattle can stay competitive. What complicates it is that every team in the NFC West appears to have closed the gap.
What left Seattle this offseason
The two departures that matter most are Kenneth Walker III and Klint Kubiak. Walker, the Super Bowl MVP, signed with the Kansas City Chiefs. Kubiak, the offensive coordinator who helped architect Seattle's 14-3 season, left to become head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. Losing a coordinator is different from losing a player. It reshapes how an offense installs concepts, adjusts in-game, and develops the players around the quarterback.
The defense also shed pieces. Seattle did retain Derick Hall on an extension, which limits the erosion, but the unit is projected to take a step back from where it performed last season.
What the Seahawks kept
Darnold remains at quarterback, and his standing in the league is now permanently different. Two years ago he was considered a bust. He now has a Super Bowl ring. Seattle also extended Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Charles Cross alongside Hall.
Cooper Kupp joins the receiver group as a veteran option, with Shaheed holding down the third receiver role. AJ Barner covers the tight end spot. At running back, Zach Charbonnet takes over as the primary option after Walker's departure. Charbonnet was injured in the playoffs, so his durability over a full season is the open question in Seattle's backfield.
The counterargument
The case for Seattle rests on the idea that Darnold and Smith-Njigba, who has the profile of a top-three receiver, are hard to count out regardless of what else changes. The offense has the personnel to function at a high level even without Kubiak calling plays. A team that went 14-3, survived a 31-27 NFC Championship Game against the Rams, and then handled the Patriots 29-13 in the Super Bowl does not become ordinary in one offseason.
On balance
The win total market is not pricing in a collapse. It is pricing in a division that no longer has Seattle sitting above it unchallenged. The Rams, the 49ers, and the Cardinals are all projected to be stronger this season. At minus-225, the Seahawks' odds to make the playoffs still suggest a postseason appearance is expected. The harder number to sit with: the two most irreplaceable pieces from last year's run, Walker and Kubiak, are now in Kansas City and Las Vegas.