The case for Golar LNG (GLNG) as the default solution for stranded-gas monetization is harder to dismiss after Thursday's fourth-unit order announcement. The complication: a $2.45 billion capital commitment lands without a signed charter on the new vessel, meaning the 50% earnings growth projection hinges on contract timing that CEO Karl Fredrik Staubo acknowledged follows no standard process.
The physical argument for the order is straightforward. Staubo told analysts that Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefaction complex, which carries total capacity of 88 million tonnes per annum, faces an estimated outage of around 17 million tonnes for at least three to five years following military action in the Middle East. The LNG industry is projected to grow roughly 40% between 2026 and 2031, according to Golar's own market analysis, and the U.S. and Qatar are simultaneously expected to raise their combined share of global supply from 40% to 53%. Concentrated supply meeting disrupted capacity is exactly the kind of spread a floating liquefaction vessel is built to exploit.
The fourth unit, a Mark II design to be built at CIMC Raffles Shipyard in China, will deliver within 2029 and would represent, in Staubo's framing, the earliest available liquefaction capacity globally, at least one to two years ahead of any alternative. CFO Eduardo Maranhao stated that if the unit is chartered on terms broadly comparable to those of the FLNG Esperanza, annual EBITDA has the potential to exceed $1.2 billion by 2030. That figure sits before any commodity price upside. Under the existing Hilli and Esperanza charters, Golar receives a commodity-linked fee equivalent to 25% of FOB prices above $8 per million BTU. Maranhao said that at $15 per million BTU, the current one-year forward price, the company would expect approximately $1.9 billion in annual EBITDA across the fleet.
The Q2 numbers lend some grounding to those projections. EBITDA rose approximately 20% quarter-on-quarter to $127 million from $106 million in Q1, driven primarily by higher commodity-linked earnings from the Hilli vessel: $37 million in Q2 versus $10 million the prior quarter. Total operating revenue came in at $130 million. The FLNG Gimi produced 15% above its contracted day rate despite high ambient temperatures, which Golar noted typically suppress liquefaction output.
The counterargument
The fourth vessel has no charter and no committed revenue. Staubo was explicit: the company will not proceed with a fifth unit until it has clear visibility on long-term employment for the fourth. Samsung, the dominant alternative shipyard, is at the earliest able to deliver incremental capacity sometime in 2031, which supports Golar's pitch to prospective customers. But the absence of a term sheet on unit four leaves a $2.45 billion commitment resting on prospective demand rather than contracted cash flow.
On balance, the inventory of physical facts is more constructive than the financial setup is clean. Qatar's outage is real, the competing yard calendar is genuinely constrained, and Hilli completed eight years in Cameroon at 100% economic uptime across 156 cargoes, the kind of operational record that closes charters. The line to watch is whether Golar announces a term sheet or framework agreement on FLNG number four before year-end, the threshold Staubo identified as the first binding milestone in the commercialization sequence.